As we know, any predictions are fraught with peril but here’s a roundup of some of the current thinking about what’s happening here and abroad over the next 12 months (with a few random thoughts thrown in for good measure!)
Interest Rates will Rise
Most commentators are picking that rates will rise throughout this year. It’s already underway overseas, pushing up the borrowing rate for NZ banks which they will then pass on to their customers. So think about your borrowing and don’t take on new debt without factoring in some space for interest rate increases.
Tourism will Continue to Boom
So now could be a good time to think about investing in this sector. The table below shows the inbound capacity for airline seats since 1992 with a forecast for 2017 – so inbound tourist numbers look strong for at least the next year. There is a chronic shortage of beds in Auckland and Queenstown, creating opportunity there for developers. There must also be opportunity for service providers to the industry to also have a strong year – recruiters, trainers, designers and all the associated businesses.
Yes, you heard it here first! Furry nails will be a ‘thing’. And bottom lashes! (That’s lashes on the lower lid, not elsewhere).
General Election will create a ‘pause’ in economic activity
The surprise resignation of John Key has created a greater level of uncertainty around the 2017 election outcome and, as a consequence, economic activity (especially asset purchases) will likely slow down from August to November. This effect will be stronger or weaker depending on how close the election appears to be. However, if we have to choose between Andrew Little or Bill English, the boredom factor may mean that the impact is marginal. It would be good for New Zealand if one of the leaders could articulate a meaningful vision to lift our GDP per capita and not just rely on immigration to generate growth.
Alternatively, a new leader will emerge who captures the imagination of the NZ public with an appeal for a fairer society. James Shaw for PM?
Housing Market will see a Correction
This is a big call and may take more than the next 12 months – however, it’s tough to see how a correction cannot occur at some point, given the exaggerated state of the housing market and stagnated wages. Something has to give somewhere. As interest rates move up, we will have to see wages start to lift to cover the increased housing costs.
Large Weather Event which has global implications
Mother Earth will make her displeasure known on a large scale with an unforeseen climatic event which shakes people’s perceptions of our place on the planet.
Flat shoes are in
The end of feet pain for half the population as women re-gain their minds.
The End of the Kardashian Era
The internet of value will make itself known.
Chain block technology will be understood and have practical applications. We will start to transact using this new technology and everyone will be talking about this. If you haven’t heard of this yet, there are lots of applications but the one that you may have heard of is Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency. This technology allows for the transfer of value without the banks.
More cultural and environmental sensitivity regarding food
We’ll be delving into indigenous cuisines from around the Pacific more thoroughly and eating it all! No waste here.